新型冠狀病毒肺炎（COVID-19）從2020年1月下旬開始大規(guī)模爆發(fā)，COVID-19動力學建模的相關(guān)報道認為建立合適的數(shù)據(jù)收集體系并科學處理海量的信息對于疫情控制非常重要。不論是從理論上還是在實踐中，該類非線性流行性疾病的傳播和治療都受到多種因素、多個層面以及不同防控措施的影響。在確證了存在"人傳人"的傳播途徑之后，分析武漢"封城"后1~40 d我國以及全球疫情大爆發(fā)初期的感染人群數(shù)據(jù)確診病例和新增病例的數(shù)據(jù)變化規(guī)律。我國迅速采取了"封城""隔離"和"帶口罩"等控制病毒傳播的措施，并取得階段性成功。為科學判定傳染病危害程度，提出簡化的"傳播相"和"處置相"的"二房室"模型，并基于國內(nèi)和國際疫情數(shù)據(jù)予以分析。病毒傳播速度研究傳播爆發(fā)期的動力學分析對控制疫情爆發(fā)更具有實際意義。全球防疫咨詢中心和世界衛(wèi)生組織（WHO）的總確診人數(shù)和現(xiàn)有確診人數(shù)的傳播速率（K_t）和倍增時間（t_t2/1）基本變化不大。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)全球傳播t_t2/1均明顯短于我國的6.27~7.02 d，表明全球的傳播速率明顯高于我國。注意到意大利、西班牙和伊朗3個國家總確診人數(shù)的K_t、t_t2/1和死亡率均與全球數(shù)據(jù)有明顯差異。特別是死亡率明顯高于全球水平，分別為9.57%、6.59%、7.86%，約為全球的2倍，是我國的3倍。因此，研究認為處理好傳播途徑和控制傳播速率是關(guān)鍵。

Since the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on a large scale in late January 2020, the relevant reports of COVID-19 dynamics modeling found that it was very important to establish an appropriate data collection system and scientifically deal with massive information for epidemic control. No matter in theory or in practice, the transmission and treatment of virus infected persons with the kind of nonlinear epidemic diseases are affected by various factors, multiple levels, and different prevention and control measures. After confirming the transmission route of "human-to-human transmission", the data change rules of confirmed cases and new cases of infectious population in China and in the early stage of the outbreak 1-40 d after the closure of Wuhan were analyzed. China has quickly adopted measures to control the spread of the virus, such as "city closure", "isolation", and "wearing masks", and has achieved phased success. In order to scientifically determine the degree of harm of infectious diseases, a simplified "two-compartment" model of "transmission phase" and "disposition phase" is proposed and analyzed based on domestic and international epidemic data. It is more practical to study the speed of virus transmission and the dynamics analysis to control the outbreak. According to data from the Global Epidemic Prevention Consulting Center and WHO, the growth rate (K_t) and doubling time (t_t2/1) of the total number of confirmed cases and the number of confirmed cases from the two sources have little change. The study found that the global propagation doubling time is significantly shorter than 6.27-7.02 d in China, indicating that the global propagation rate is significantly higher than that in China. K_t, t_t2/1, and mortality rate of the total number of confirmed cases in Italy, Spain, and Iran are obviously different from the global data. The special mortality rate is significantly higher than the global level, with 9.57%, 6.59%, and 7.86%, respectively, which is almost twice that of the world. Therefore, the study believes that it is the key to deal with the transmission pathway and control of the transmission rate.

R974